The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team has revised its Atlantic hurricane season.

In April, the team forecast 13 named storms, of which five would become hurricanes and two of which would become major hurricanes.

REGIONAL – The revised CSU forecast calls for 14 named storms, six to become hurricanes and  two to become major hurricanes.

The revised forecast brings CSU’s predictions more in line with those issued by AccuWeather and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA predicts nine to 15 named storms, four to eight hurricanes and two to four major storms; Accuweather predicts 12-14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.

The CSU team cites three factors in revising its forecast:

•The El Niño in the Pacific is expected to continue throughout the June 1 to Nov. 30 season.

•Sea-surface temperatures that have warmed faster than normal.

•Unstable atmospheric conditions resulting from the warmer sea-surface temperatures.

El Niño tends to suppress the formation of hurricanes, whereas the warmer sea-surface temperatures and the resultant atmospheric instability tend to promote hurricane formation.

The team predicts the 2019 activity will be 95 percent of the average season.

CSU will issue revised forecasts July 9 and Aug. 5.


Advance-Guard Press - Goliad report